China's Pension System: A Vision by Mark C. Dorfman

By Mark C. Dorfman

Finished reform of China's pension and social defense procedure is an important component to reaching its pursuits of a harmonious society and sustainable improvement. over the last few years, the govt. has thought of a number of innovations and initiated a number of major measures. In 2009 the experts confirmed a countrywide framework for rural pensions, the agricultural Pension Pilot software (RPPP) and in 2011 a Pilot Social Pension coverage for city citizens introduced. during this approach, it has articulated rules for a reformed city pension approach (indicated by means of 12 chinese language characters ) that are 'broad assurance, protects on the uncomplicated point, is multi-layered, and sustainable' whereas the foundations for the agricultural process (indicated via 12 characters ) are 'broad insurance, protects on the simple point, versatile, and sustainable.' those ideas underpin the commitments made on the seventeenth occasion Congress in the direction of a accomplished and built-in social safety approach by way of 2020. even supposing big reforms of the pension method were undertaken during the last 20 years, a few policymakers have prompt that extra reforms are had to meet the wishes of China's speedily altering financial system and society. concerns corresponding to legacy expenses, approach fragmentation and restricted insurance haven't been absolutely addressed. while, many new demanding situations have emerged corresponding to fast urbanization, elevated source of revenue inequality and urban-rural disparities, better informalization of the exertions strength, alterations in family members constitution, and the consequences of elevated globalization. This record has been ready on the request of the Ministry of Finance to improve a medium time period imaginative and prescient of a holistic framework that may be learned through 2040 for strengthening previous age source of revenue safeguard in China that is in line with the rules defined within the 12 characters and layout ideas in the direction of reaching it. the most physique of this record outlines this imaginative and prescient -- summarizing the major positive factors of a proposed medium-term pension process -- whereas the annexes give you the deeper research and context which underpins the options contained herein.

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As suggested in box 2, benefits would be calculated at retirement based on the notional balance accumulated and the annuity factor, which includes the life expectancy at retirement and the prevailing notional interest rate (see box 2), similar to the benefit formulation under current individual accounts. • Retirement age. 20 Not only is increasing the retirement age essential to reducing contribution rates and improving benefits, it is also one of a series of measures needed to remove disincentives for workers to work longer (see box 1).

Just as old-age dependency ratios are increasing, the so-called 1-2-4 family pattern (1 child–2 parents–4 grandparents) has contributed to declining family 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 19 8 19 0 8 19 5 9 19 0 9 20 5 0 20 0 0 20 5 1 20 0 1 20 5 2 20 0 2 20 5 3 20 0 3 20 5 4 20 0 4 20 5 50 population in thousands Figure 1 China Population Projections: Growth in the Aged and Dependency ­Ratios age 15–59 over age 60 total 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 19 8 19 0 8 19 5 9 19 0 9 20 5 0 20 0 05 20 1 20 0 1 20 5 2 20 0 2 20 5 3 20 0 3 20 5 4 20 0 4 20 5 50 percent ratio under age 15 percent over age 60 old-age dependency ratio Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision.

The elderly are vulnerable to shocks and are likely to grow more vulnerable in the years ahead. Information on elderly poverty and sources of income suggests that the urban elderly are not uniformly at risk as a group; many of them rely on sources of support that are vulnerable to shocks or are dependent on family members who may be unable to provide adequate levels of support and may themselves be subject to shocks that reduce the level of support they can provide (see appendix D). The pressures on family support are likely to become more acute in coming decades as old-age dependency ratios rise.

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